Demographic Transition Model Questions Medium
The dependency ratio is a demographic indicator that measures the proportion of the population that is economically dependent, typically consisting of children and elderly individuals, compared to the working-age population. It is calculated by dividing the number of dependents (those aged 0-14 and 65+) by the number of working-age individuals (those aged 15-64) and multiplying the result by 100.
In the context of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM), the dependency ratio plays a significant role in understanding the different stages of population growth and development. The DTM is a theoretical framework that explains the relationship between population dynamics and economic development in different countries.
During the early stages of the DTM, known as Stage 1 or the pre-industrial stage, both birth and death rates are high, resulting in a high dependency ratio. This is because a large proportion of the population consists of children, and there is limited access to healthcare and education, leading to a high mortality rate among the elderly. The high dependency ratio in this stage indicates a heavy burden on the working-age population to support the dependents.
As a country progresses to Stage 2, known as the transitional stage, improvements in healthcare, sanitation, and living conditions lead to a decline in the death rate. However, the birth rate remains high, resulting in a significant increase in the population size and a further increase in the dependency ratio. This stage is characterized by a youth bulge, where a large proportion of the population consists of children and young adults. The high dependency ratio in this stage poses challenges for providing education, healthcare, and employment opportunities for the growing population.
In Stage 3, known as the industrial stage, the birth rate starts to decline due to factors such as urbanization, increased access to contraception, and changing societal norms. At the same time, the death rate continues to decline, leading to a decrease in the dependency ratio. This stage is characterized by a demographic dividend, where the working-age population becomes larger than the dependent population. This demographic shift allows for increased economic productivity, as there are fewer dependents to support.
Finally, in Stage 4, known as the post-industrial stage, both birth and death rates are low, resulting in a relatively stable population size and a low dependency ratio. The proportion of the working-age population remains high, allowing for sustained economic growth and development.
In summary, the dependency ratio is a crucial indicator in the Demographic Transition Model as it helps to understand the relationship between population structure, economic development, and the challenges faced by different stages of demographic transition. It highlights the burden on the working-age population to support dependents and provides insights into the potential demographic dividend and economic opportunities in different stages of development.