Demographic Transition Model Questions Medium
In the Demographic Transition Model, the dependency ratio refers to the ratio of the economically dependent population (typically children and elderly) to the economically productive population (typically working-age adults). The relationship between the dependency ratio and economic productivity can be described as follows:
1. Stage 1 (Pre-Industrial): In this stage, both the dependency ratio and economic productivity are high. The majority of the population is engaged in agriculture and other primary activities, and there is limited technological advancement. As a result, economic productivity is low, and the dependency ratio is high due to high birth rates and high mortality rates.
2. Stage 2 (Transitional): As societies undergo industrialization and urbanization, there is a decline in mortality rates due to improvements in healthcare, sanitation, and nutrition. However, birth rates remain high, leading to a significant increase in the population. During this stage, the dependency ratio remains high, as there is still a large proportion of children compared to the working-age population. Economic productivity starts to increase due to the adoption of new technologies and the shift towards secondary activities such as manufacturing and construction.
3. Stage 3 (Industrial): In this stage, birth rates start to decline as societies become more urbanized and economically developed. The dependency ratio begins to decrease as the proportion of working-age adults increases relative to the dependent population. Economic productivity continues to rise as societies focus on tertiary activities such as services, finance, and technology. This stage is characterized by a demographic dividend, where a larger proportion of the population is in the working-age group, leading to increased economic growth.
4. Stage 4 (Post-Industrial): Birth rates and death rates stabilize at low levels, resulting in a low dependency ratio. The majority of the population is in the working-age group, leading to high economic productivity. However, the aging population can pose challenges to the economy, as there may be a higher demand for healthcare and social services. To maintain economic productivity, societies may need to adapt policies and programs to support the elderly population.
In summary, the relationship between the dependency ratio and economic productivity in the Demographic Transition Model is initially high in the early stages, but as societies progress through industrialization and urbanization, the dependency ratio decreases, and economic productivity increases. However, in the later stages, the aging population may pose challenges to sustaining economic productivity.